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Geofrey Eneyo
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COVID-19 IN NIGERIA – INCREASE TESTING CAPACITY AND STEM COMMUNITY TRANSMISSIONS: TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!
On Monday, April 27 2020, after listening to President Buhari’s broadcast about easing
lockdowns in Lagos and Ogun from May 4, 2020, without any reassurance of sufficient provisions for what he described as ‘aggressive testing,’ I thought to myself, when will our
government move away from rhetoric to reality? If by now, you cannot put numbers on available testing kits, available protective equipment and expanding accredited testing laboratories through half the states of the federation, contact tracing will merely be a matter of optics. We must move at the speed of emerging scientific/medical advisory on this pandemic by learning very fast from the experiences of worst-hit countries. The first step to that reality
is to ensure that every Nigerian State has and can do more testings. That is the only way to implement contact tracing efficiently.
According to the President, ‘the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) has accredited
15 laboratories across the country with an aggregate capacity to undertake 2500 test per day across the country.’ With such numbers, we are very far from the road to recovery, and there is not a single way to grapple with the idea that a country of about 200 million people is still projecting only 2500 test each day since announcing the first lockdown of Lagos on March 29 2020. According to the Director-General of NCDC, Dr Chikwe Ihekweazu, Nigeria is adopting ‘a strategy of ‘managed acceleration’ and would not pool samples to multiply testing capacity as is being done in Ghana which currently has one of the largest testing programmes in the region.’ Quoting from Bloomberg news, Dr Chikwe while addressing the World Health
Organisation on Thursday, April 23 2020, insisted thus- ‘I would rather go a little bit slower and get it right than speed into a situation that we will end up regretting.’ But while precision in
testings is critically vital and cannot be sacrificed on the altar of speed, Dr Chikwe and this government should also appreciate that this virus may be moving faster than we thought, and delays with tests expansion could leave us in more dire strait. Some countries are already deploying automated testings to ramp up progress. We cannot afford to be mechanic and unwieldy at the same time. Perhaps, it is this slow testing capacity, and delayed containment strategy not helped by a President who barely steer affairs of State that led the ace broadcaster Fortune ‘General’ Omosola to tweet in despair- ‘Nigerians will survive anything, they are lone survivors, brave, intrepid, fearless and that’s the real reason why the government can’t see beyond their musty corridors. It’s a shame.’ (italics mine).
To have any chance of winning the fight against Coronavirus (COVID-19), the first and most critical shot at it is a continuing increase in your testing capacity. Anything other than that, as a nation that always adopts prayer as our usual strategy to solve every single human problem, we may have to now resort to praying for quick discovery of appropriate containment vaccine.
Interestingly, the United Kingdom has only a few days ago, ran its first vaccine test on a volunteer medical practitioner, and she did not die, she is still alive and full of pride risking it for all of us. However, it is unclear when the vaccines would have been mass-produced, enough to be correctly administered on every contact case here in the UK. In other places notwithstanding issues around product or process patent that could potentially slow progress in sending out to or developing similar vaccines in countries like Nigeria. I understand that some may argue that, given we have a global emergency of this magnitude on our hands, it will be insensitive for patent issues to serve any bottlenecks at this time. Just like you, I agree it should not, but it usually does not work that smooth.
Increase in testing for contact cases has continued to help countries understand the extent of this problem, providing direction for next cause of action and enabling them to measure their level of progress and areas to improve going forward. In the United States, the most infected country with over a million case, over 6.3 million tests have been carried out. In Spain, with 236,889 cases and second most infected country after the US, a total of 1,455,306 people are confirmed tested. Italy, the third most infected country with currently 203,591 cases, a total of 1,910,761 tests have been completed as at yesterday. I also do know a lot of people will argue that the socioeconomic strength of these countries should not be compared to Nigeria, after all, they are industrialised economies, and we are not.
Yet, despite having an ‘industrialised health sector,’ these countries have seen unprecedented deaths from the virus. Why so? For instance, before the first case of COVID-19 was reported in Italy on February 20, 2020, from a 38-year-old man, people who initially presented symptoms in hospitals were thought to have mere seasonal flu or pneumonia. With the virus not detected early enough, by the time the authorities got a hold on testings, a lot of transmission chains had taken place. It was a pattern similar to worst-hit countries with record losses. Worryingly, as the seventh-largest population in the world after China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Pakistan and Brazil, if we do not ramp up testings and detect spread early, community transmission among us could become too much to handle. In the United Kingdom, while names of people with the infection within your local area are concealed, a quick online check of the number of cases within your community pops up. With this, you have a clear idea about taking extra-precaution to keep yourself safe, especially when stepping to
the groceries for food and other essentials.
Of the other six populated countries, apart from Indonesia and Pakistan with testing capacities at 94,599 and 174,160 respectively, Brazil and India have covered no less than 330,000 of its vast population respectively, testing 339,552 and 716,733 of its citizens as at April 29 2020.
So, why should one not be concerned when on average test per 1 million people, we are as weak as having just tested 66 people? We must act with rapidity to ensure our testing capacity does measure cumulatively on our population at the very least. No government can hide its
cluelessness through this pandemic; it will expose your incompetence to the world.
Now coming to Africa where we love to play the giant ostrich of the continent, you would be
stunned by what some African countries are doing to tackle this virus. Most of these countries
understand that putting words into action by increasing their testing capacity may just be the
most critical and first antidote to this pandemic, and results are trickling in as well. In Kenya and Mauritius, a total of 396 and 332 cases have been recorded respectively. And even with their populations nowhere near ours, these countries have tested more. A total of 20,268 and 14,445 people apiece while Nigeria trails at 13,689 tests. Also, while 144 people have
recovered in Kenya, in Mauritius, 310 people have recovered so far with recoveries in Nigeria now 307. South Africa, on its part, has now recorded 5,350 cases, tested 197,127 persons,
and 2,073 patients have recovered. I bet you do not want to do that maths, but I can give you a look-in. Although we are yet to reach half the cases in South Africa, the number of those we
have sadly lost to this virus is about half the number of people lost to the pandemic in South Africa. They have lost 103 persons; we have lost 51 persons. While analysis of these figures may not bode well with some, facts must be presented to Nigerians, so they can continue to
demand more action, less scripting from this government. Secondly, these data should give us a clear perspective of what may be coming if NCDC does not ramp up testing across the country.
According to Premium Times report on April 27 2020, ‘with over a thousand cases in Africa, Nigeria has the worst testing capacity.’ On April 1, the Nigerian government stated that ‘to expand coverage, it has increased its testing capacity from 500 to 1500 daily coverage. Three weeks after, precisely on April 21 2020, the Presidential Task Force for COVID-19 again, told Nigerians, that the NCDC would increase our testing capacity across the country to 4000 each day. But the Nigerian Infectious Diseases Society (NIDS) have retorted, noting that the country
It is easy to ease lockdowns, and yes, fear over projected economic depression should not be a stand-alone reason for taking such decision, there are other factors this government ought to consider alongside the economy. I say this with regards to some of the options currently being weighed by the UK Government as they too look to relax lockdowns soon. If we must lift lockdowns, our government ought to also consider the following:
(1) The ability of our health system to cope in the event of a spike in cases after we relax lockdown. Can we comfortably say our intensive care units, for example, can deal? Do we have enough bed spaces to admit patients if this decision leads to a fresh wave in COVD-19 patients? We cannot forget that hospitals will also continue to accept people who fall sick from other causes. So, do we think a 3000 capacity bed spaces for cases in Nigeria enough, knowing as at April 30, 2020, Nigeria still has 1,370 active cases?
Did our government consider the impact an overwhelmed sector might have on the mental health of our frontline workers too?
(2) Did our government also consider how a decision to lift lockdown could affect our number from falling or rising? A consistent fall in cases or record deaths would have been good, but for over a week now, NCDC daily report shows we have seen a steady rise in cases. Yesterday April 29 2020, Nigeria saw its highest numbers, 196 new contacts according to NCDC.
(3) What indicators show that lifting restrictions will not implode our cases from current manageable levels?
(4) With inadequate testing capacity after two months of keeping Nigerians in the dark on the real extent of community transmissions, what assurances do we have that we can fix this before the lockdown of Lagos and Ogun is relaxed next week? Or that we have enough PPEs in stock for our health and other frontline workers. We must prioritise the safety of those putting their lives on the line for us during this pandemic. We must guard and guide against sacrificing them merely because of the misplaced government
priorities!
In conclusion, Mr President, how about doing the needful first? The first thing we need to see is a consistent cumulative increase in Nigeria’s testing capacity. Increase in testings is the first window that gives you a sneak peek into whether or not you have a hold on this situation.
While I agree that a lockdown without food may be counterproductive and call for alternative palliatives to ease the burden of survival, relaxing lockdowns without ramping up testings across Nigeria could be immensely disastrous for our nation. It is not an alarmist view but to raise awareness and remind the government that we are wasting valuable time by not testing
enough of our citizens for this virus. If we must successfully detect and stem the extent of community transmissions, then time is of the essence here!
Geofrey Eneyo is a researcher and writes from Port Harcourt Nigeria. You can reach him at
eneyofenomenon@gmail.com
Sources referred:
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